Master Charts Trading - Stock Market Indicators & Trade Alerts
Connect To Us!
  • MasterChartsTrading
  • Blog
  • Sign-Up
  • Members
    • Elite Trading Blog
    • Stock Speculator Blog
    • Training Library >
      • Basics of Trading
      • Risk & Trading Psych
      • Trend Identification
  • Help
    • Hall of Fame
    • Social
    • About Us
    • Contact
    • FAQs
    • Disclaimer
    • Refund Policy
    • Privacy Policy
    • What We Trade
    • Newsletter samples

Market recap for friday, October 16, 2015 - NYA SPY TLT USO UNG GLD GDX 

10/16/2015

0 Comments

 
​Special thanks for those of you who have signed-up for my Trade Alerts Service! As you may know this project has been in development for over a year now. It really means a lot to me that there is now a surprisingly large interest in my expertise. I will do my very best to not disappoint with my calls!
Many other services provide recommendations of what to buy or sell, but they avoid putting their money on the line together with their clients’ money. My Trade Alerts are the actual trades that I execute – so my money is on the line together with yours!

Moving on to market action.
​I was looking over some historical charts of New York Stock Exchange composite index ($NYA) and found some amazing similarity to today’s picture. Back in January-February of 2008, $NYA traced out a very similar pattern to what we have right now. First in January 2008 there was a major support break, followed by a strong rebound. The trend and market breadth indicators have turned negative, but then gradually improved into late February 2008. Note specifically ITBM – Intermediate Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator. It turned positive and was above its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA). Then in late February, it crossed its 10-day EMA and continued down. The price of course followed lower.
Picture
​We have a remarkably similar picture in many of the indices right now. The ITBM is in the positive territory and above its 10-day EMA. However notice that this is the first time ITBM is positive following the support break in August. If ITBM rolls over here, we could easily get a re-test of September lows again. 
Picture
S&P 500 is showing a similar pattern as $NYA. Market breadth has improved further from last week, but it is still falling short of the bull market thresholds. Percent of stocks above 200-day EMA is still below 60, and so are the Bullish percent indices for all the major markets.
       Charts of SPY and $SPX
Picture
Picture
Bonds still outperformed stocks on relative basis. TLT gained 1.35% for the week, while SPY added just under a percent. Why would there be strength in bonds, if stocks seem to be breaking out? Fear is very much alive and well in the markets and bonds, especially US Treasuries are still considered to be the safest place to park your cash. I am bullish on bonds until proven otherwise.
Chart of TLT_
Picture
US Dollar index (as traded on Forex) may have held support this week. If it is indeed so, dollar could gain in the days and weeks ahead and put pressure on various commodities such as gold, oil and naturals gas – so lets look at them next. 
Fans of the yellow metal were happy this week as gold gained almost 2% and was able to close above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May. Could this short covering rally that started in July turn into an honest-to goodness bottom in gold prices? I will keep an open mind to that possibility. In the meantime I do not see much evidence to counter my hypothesis that the bear market in gold that started in 2012-2013 is over. Trend in motion stays in motion and long-term charts of gold are very much still bearish.
CHART OF GOLD

Picture
Gold’s extremely volatile brother – GDX fared surprisingly worse then gold itself. It tacked on only about ¾ of a percent. After the Wednesday’s 6.5% gain (yes GDX moves that much), the rally petered out and GDX ended Friday on a decidedly sour note. Sellers dominated Friday’s action into the close and I would not be surprised to see continued selling on Monday.
       As I mentioned last week, the market breadth for GDX still has a lot of work cut out for it. The AD-Lines for GDX haven’t been able to exceed even the August highs – a bearish sign. Bottom line – GDX is overbought and in a downtrend. If you read my previous blog entries you know what I am going to say next: it’s a shorting opportunity.
CHART OF GDX
Picture
Picture
Last week on Friday, oil ($WTIC) traced out what appeared to be a shooting star candlestick as higher prices were rejected at the 200-day moving average. Shooting star candle was confirmed this week with a follow-through lower. But then again, oil seems to have found support around $45 - close to the 50-day moving average. So for now, the prices seem to be stuck between these two lines. Long-term oil is bearish, so bearish outcome of this trading range seems more likely.
CHART OF OIL
Picture
Finally natural gas ($NATGAS) hit a 52-week low at the beginning of October and rebounded with a classic pattern of a rising wedge. A rising wedge pattern in a bearish security is a bearish continuation pattern. Thursday saw a decisive break of this bear wedge and Friday we had more follow-through to the downside. More 52-week lows are now very likely.
       CHART OF $NATGAS
Picture
That’s it for this week’s market recap,
Best Regards and have another great trading week!
 
Alexander Berger (www.MasterChartsTrading.com)
 
 
0 Comments

Market Recap For Friday, October 9, 2015 SPY TLT GLD GDX USO

10/10/2015

0 Comments

 

​** Special Announcement**
Trade Alerts Service is now live! Please sign-up for it here.

       A tough week for those playing the downside in the stock market. S&P 500 ($SPX, SPY) was up over 3% for the week on improving breath. Currently stocks are overbought and I still think $SPX is now in a long-term downtrend. If this is indeed the case, then we have a short setup in stocks right now.
Chart of SPY
​
Picture
We are seeing incremental improvement in the market breadth. The AD-line and AD-volume lines for $SPX are now confirming higher highs relative to the mid-September highs. Also, we are seeing a decent number of new highs being set. Additionally, the percentage of stocks above the 50-day exponential moving average has climbed above the 60% mark. All of these are positive signs, but the longer-term trend and support breaks from August still dominate the chart patterns, so I am inclined to look for a short entry at this point of the game.
Chart of $SPX
​
Picture
Not surprisingly, bonds (TLT) sold-off this week after coming close to challenging its mid-August highs. Bonds are still in a bull-market, so this pullback is a normal part of market action. Should stocks come under pressure, bonds are very likely to benefit. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator for TLT broke out above its August highs, while the price has not yet done so. This is suggesting that the market participants are accumulating bonds.
       Chart of TLT
​
Picture
Selling in the dollar is contributing to a rebound in various commodities. It should be noted, however, that the dollar remains in an uptrend and is not that far off from its 52-week highs. We could easily see a resumption of an uptrend in the dollar in which case commodities will come under pressure again.
Picture
Gold is benefiting from the weaker dollar and has gained 1.58% this week. It is again at resistance, but is now overbought (along with gold miners). It is still possible that gold could rally to the $1175 area where the 200-day moving average currently is. But there are lots and lots of resistance there. Long-term gold is bearish, so I think we now have a short setup.
Chart of gold
​
Picture
       Gold miners (GDX) are clearly overbought after about a 23% move. Did I mention bear-market rallies could be powerful? Could we run further up? Gold bulls will mention that:
  1. GDX broke out above mid-August highs
  2. On-Balance volume is showing a bullish divergence going all the way back to July
  3. The Bullish percent index ($BPGDM) is currently at 30% after it bottomed out at zero a few weeks ago. Back in the beginning of the year $BPGDM topped out at 50%, so we have some room to run to the upside
While gold bears would point out that:
  1. GDX is long-term bearish, so overbought readings (like right now should be shorted
  2. Advance-Decline (AD) and AD-Volume lines did not brake out above mid-August highs while price did – this is a bearish divergence
We will see who will win this match, as for me; I am actively looking for entries on the short side.
Chart of GDX
​
Picture
Oil was the clear winner this week as it gained over 8%. Is this a true breakout? On Friday oil almost touched the downward sloping 200-day moving average and pulled back sharply. This formed a shooting star candlestick – a sign of reversal. I opened a half-sized position in SCO to play oil on the downside a few weeks back. For now my stop has not yet been hit, so I am keeping it open. Should we get any more upside, it will likely get closed out. Alternative scenario is for the dollar to strengthen again and for commodities of all sorts to come under pressure again.
Chart of $WTIC Oil
Picture
​That’s it for this week’s market recap,
Best Regards and have another great trading week!
 
Alexander Berger (www.MasterChartsTrading.com)
 
0 Comments
<<Previous
Forward>>
    Picture
    Picture
    Subscribe to our mailing list!
    Picture
    Picture

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014

    RSS Feed

  All information on MasterChartsTrading.com is for educational and entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities. Read full disclaimer.