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SUMMARY
This week’s market recap highlights rising pressure from interest rates after Kevin Warsh’s hawkish inflation comments, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 17-year highs and bonds remaining under pressure. The S&P 500 is showing signs of a near-term pullback toward support but remains in a broader bullish trend, while utilities continue to flash caution and are leading recent selling—though the setup looks different from the 2021–2022 bear market.
The U.S. dollar has generated a new bullish signal, creating headwinds for gold and silver, while Bitcoin is consolidating after a roughly 30% rally and remains about 6% below a potential new bull-market breakout near $83,000. Cocoa futures have broken out amid concerns about weather-related supply disruptions, while orange juice futures remain bearish but are showing a narrowing trading range that could eventually set up a breakout.
The new MasterChartsTrading 8.0 Price Action Indicators are also now available, replacing earlier 2.0 and 6.0 versions with improved signals, including customizable buy arrows.
FULL TRANSCRIPT
MasterChartsTrading.com Market Recap
Saturday, August 29, 2026
First announcement: we have the 8.0 indicators available now. If you're interested, I will show you how to apply them to your chart. The 8.0 MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators are available, and if you have my 2.0 or 6.0 versions, this supersedes them. It's a huge improvement, so stay until the end to find out how to get them.
Kevin Warsh sent shockwaves throughout the market world, and the 10-year Treasury yield is now near 17-year highs. The 30-year yield is already at 19-year highs that were hit recently.
Utilities are continuing to flash warning signs, and we will also compare the current state of the stock market versus 2021. A commenter left a note for me to take a look at that, so I'll take a look.
The dollar is surging on a hawkish inflation stance, and precious metals could already be rolling over. Bitcoin could be stalling after this massive 30% rally. Another viewer requested an analysis of cocoa and orange juice futures. Stay tuned for that as well.
All this and more in today's edition of the MasterChartsTrading.com market recap for Saturday, August 29, 2026.
As always, please hit the like button, share this video, and make a comment—even put a thumbs-up in the comments section. That's what keeps this channel going and makes the video available to a wider audience.
If you're a subscriber, stay tuned. We'll be covering a separate video on market breadth, various ETFs, some of the large-cap stocks, and some speculative securities. For example, this week we'll be looking at new stock additions to this universe: Pullman X Corp, Beam Therapeutics, and others.
The 8.0 indicators are now available. They look slightly different. You can see that we now have actual arrows where the buy signals would occur. You can also customize them. If you're interested, sign up at MasterChartsTrading.com. The link is in the description.
Let's get started.
Another thing I'm doing right now is recording this video through ChatGPT, so you'll have a clean transcript. If you don't have time to watch the video, you can scan through the transcript, and there will also be a summary on my website, MasterChartsTrading.com, in the blog section. Stay tuned for that when the video is released.
Let's get started.
First, let's look at interest rates. Kevin Warsh recently spoke. Notice again on this chart that we now have the up arrows, and you can control them by turning them on and off. I'll turn them off for now just to make the chart clear.
The 10-year Treasury note yield is approaching 17-year highs. We can look at the 10-year Treasury note yield on the longer-term timeframe. The recent highs were hit in October 2023, and we're very close.
This entire pattern is extremely bullish for this type of security. I'm going to draw it out again. You can think about it as a cup and handle or something of this nature. If we break above the lip of the cup and above the 2023 highs, then most likely we could duplicate the depth of this entire pattern, which is about 1.2 percentage points for the 10-year Treasury note yield.
That move could potentially be duplicated on the upside, so the 10-year yield could get as far as 6% or so. Obviously, there is no guarantee of that.
The way the stock market is interpreting Kevin Warsh's comments is that the Federal Reserve is more concerned about inflation than anything else. The Treasury Department is looking at it from the point of view of whether we can finance our deficit spending.
There are two very conflicting goals here, with Treasury wanting to buy Treasury bonds while the Federal Reserve is trying to keep inflation lower. If Treasury is buying bonds, they're basically pumping money into the economy, and this usually leads to inflation.
These are contradictory goals. Right now, the market seems to trust the Federal Reserve more, and it seems like interest rates are still going higher despite efforts by the Treasury Department to lower them.
Although the longer-dated 30-year yield did not move as much, it seems that potentially there might be some sort of equilibrium reached in this almost war between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. We'll see where it gets us.
Treasury bonds are obviously under pressure. You can see that Treasury bonds are currently below the red support/resistance line and approaching the yellow support/resistance line.
This is IEF, so we're looking at seven- to 10-year Treasury bonds. If they drop below this level, that would imply a bear market for Treasury bonds.
TLT, the longer-dated Treasury bonds, already did so back in July of this year, so we are definitely not trading them on the upside. Right now we're watching the seven- to 10-year Treasury notes, and they seem to be going in the same direction as the 20-year and 30-year bonds as well.
It's an uncomfortable situation for government spending. At the same time, we have the Federal Reserve worried about inflation, so these are contradictory goals.
The S&P 500 itself hasn't really reacted that dramatically yet. Kevin Warsh spoke on Friday, and it does look like a shooting-star candlestick. There was a run-up and then the bears came in and sold, but overall it's not a very convincing reversal to the downside yet.
If we look at the four-hour charts, we can look at the futures for the S&P 500. I showed this to my subscribers, and I think I showed it here as well.
You can see there is a small gap here from July 26 to July 28, and that gap could get filled. I think that's what we're about to experience.
Again, there's a shooting-star candlestick on the four-hour chart as well, so a pullback is quite likely to continue. We might continue even lower toward 7,500 or so.
If we look at the same levels for the S&P 500 on the daily chart, the 7,500 level is around here. Basically, it's a reasonable pullback. We could see a pullback toward the green support/resistance line.
In the past, that area has provided decent support—in June, again later in June, and yet again in July. We also bounced off the green line in March. We pierced through it somewhat, but overall this is clearly still a very bullish chart.
So we're still looking at this chart from the point of view that pullbacks should be bought at this point.
Some issues do appear, and currently we're looking at utilities.
Utilities are considered by some traders to be almost like a bellwether of the stock market. In this case, the price action is actually very telling.
Notice there was a breakdown below the blue support/resistance line around the end of July, followed by a pretty strong collapse almost toward the caution area, or the red line. Then we had a rally and another touch of the blue support/resistance line from below.
It seems like the resistance there was reaffirmed. We really collapsed afterward.
I believe last week I mentioned this same chart. Last Friday, we closed below the red support/resistance line. These are utilities. We had a small bounce and then again closed low yesterday, on Friday.
Right now, we have a definitely reaffirmed entry into a caution phase for utilities.
How severe and how scary is this?
Looking at the longer-term charts, we can see that it's not yet a terrible situation. This is a weekly chart, so each candlestick represents a week's worth of activity. If you're using my indicators, you need to change the lookback period to 52 on the weekly charts.
The broader market is at or near records. Utilities actually made records a while back, in April of this year, and have not made a new record since. So this is a pretty clear bearish divergence.
A viewer said that we should look at the 2021–2022 period for parallels.
Let's look at utilities first for the 2021–2022 period. You can see that utilities were doing quite well. These upward-facing arrows show buying marks. There was a significant selloff in September 2022 going into October 2022.
Was there the same thing for the S&P 500 around the same time period? Not really.
The top for the S&P 500 actually came in December 2021 or early January 2022. Then we unraveled, retested the blue line from below, made a lower low, then a higher low, and then another lower low.
Notice that this is October 2022, and utilities also did the same thing, so they bottomed out in 2022.
Currently, the picture is different. Utilities are leading the selling, whereas in 2021–2022 this was not the case. The S&P 500 was leading the selling.
Is this applicable to today's analysis? Not necessarily. I don't see a strong parallel. Back then we had a different situation with rates as well. Rates were extremely low, so the situation was different.
I'm not yet convinced that we're seeing a similar picture to what we saw in 2022. It was a relatively short-lived bear market, basically from April 2022 until we broke out back into a bull market in April 2023. We spent about a year in bearish territory.
Right now, I think the picture is different. We're seeing higher highs for the S&P 500, while what utilities are doing possibly represents more of a reaction to the bond selling than anything else.
We'll see.
If you have an opinion, definitely comment below and make yourself heard. I'd like to hear it as well. To me, this looks different.
Other sectors are also doing okay. Even XLC, the most troublesome sector that I was highlighting before, with Meta Platforms leading to the downside, is now very close to a fresh breakout into a new bull market.
Perhaps we're just seeing an isolated episode because of the way bonds are acting. Again, we'll see where this goes.
The bigger story, of course, is the reaction of the dollar.
This is the U.S. dollar on the daily timeframe. The dollar had a big fall when the Treasury intervened in the Japanese yen market in late July of this year. The dollar fell toward the blue support/resistance line, with several potential bounces, and then fell through it on Wednesday the 19th.
But right now we're back above it. We literally have a signal to buy the dollar today.
If you're trading the euro versus the U.S. dollar, I would be selling this right now. For example, if you have a Forex account, I would consider selling this security short because it's the opposite of what we're seeing for the dollar.
A rallying dollar implies that other assets, such as precious metals, are feeling the pressure—and indeed they are.
Looking at XAU/USD, with the U.S. dollar on the bottom, the dollar is getting stronger and pulling this currency pair lower. We're seeing pretty significant selling in gold over the last few days.
Gold, technically speaking, is in a bear market again because we closed below the red support/resistance line.
Will it continue down? Very difficult to tell.
Gold miners are actually, technically speaking, in an uptrend. So that's a contradiction. Right now we have gold miners in an uptrend while gold itself is still in a downtrend.
Silver just gave us another sell signal. We had a high above the red line and a close below the red line. That's our signal to sell silver.
If you're interested in trading it, silver would potentially be one of those securities to think about selling. Will it actually hold? That's a different story.
The dollar seems to want to go higher at this point, so right now I will trust the dollar more than anything else.
But some people say, "In gold we trust." Do you trust gold or do you trust the dollar more? Make a comment about that.
Bitcoin also made a very strong move. Bitcoin moved about 30% from the lows that were set here in August and just skyrocketed.
Lately, over the past couple of weeks, it has been trading more or less sideways. On Friday, when Kevin Warsh spoke, Bitcoin reacted negatively.
But Bitcoin trades 24/7, and currently it's Saturday, so we're seeing a potential bounce. We can look at the four-hour chart. The four-hour chart of Bitcoin also shows a very nice move higher.
You can use my indicators on pretty much any chart. Those are the buy alerts and buy signals.
Where does that leave Bitcoin? I would say not there yet.
I think Bitcoin is going to react negatively to Kevin Warsh in general, but notice that the bull market for Bitcoin is extremely close. It's right there.
We're currently about 6% away from a new bull market for Bitcoin. The new bull-market level is around the blue support/resistance line, which is approximately $83,000.
If Bitcoin breaks out above $83,000, then other algorithms will see this, and I think there will be more buying at that point.
I'm moderately optimistic about Bitcoin. I'm much less optimistic about gold-related assets—gold miners, silver, and gold—because of the way they're acting and because of the way the dollar is behaving.
Another viewer asked me to analyze cocoa and orange juice futures.
I don't know who trades orange juice, but apparently people do.
Here are the cocoa futures. Cocoa futures just broke out. Yes, you can use my indicators here as well. We now have this bullish arrow, and there it is. You can see the actual breakout.
The breakout occurred on Thursday, August 27. So yes, cocoa futures seem to be breaking out.
Why is it happening?
I just read an article in The Wall Street Journal that apparently El Niño is coming and could disrupt conditions around the world this coming year. One of the things that could be disrupted is cocoa because a lot of it is produced in places like Ghana and West Africa.
I'm not a meteorologist, and I don't know much about how cocoa grows, but I'm telling you what I'm reading. People are already concerned, and there is some evidence that this could disrupt food supplies throughout the world.
On top of the war in Ukraine, which has affected exports through the Black Sea and the straits, including grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, there could be a stronger possibility of food shortages in places like Africa. Africa has a very large population, yet many countries depend on places like Russia and Ukraine for grain imports.
It's a dangerous situation.
Right now we're still dealing with this cocoa issue, so I don't know how important it ultimately is, but the article mentions companies like Hershey, and Hershey makes chocolate. Maybe we should stock up on some Hershey bars—although I don't eat sugar, so I don't know where that leaves me.
Now let's look at frozen concentrated orange juice futures.
I've never seen this symbol in my life, so I just looked at it.
The only thing I can say about this chart is that it's not bullish. The previous bullish alert would have been in January 2025, and that would have been a failure.
But if you really wanted to trade these futures, you could have potentially sold them back in July 2025 for a nice profit.
Other than that, right now the only positive thing I can say about this chart is that no new lows have been made.
Additionally, what I see here is a narrowing of the trading range.
Notice how wide apart the indicator lines were. From yellow to green they were about 130 points apart. Right now that range is much narrower. It's only about 93 points.
We can also project my indicators into the future. You can see that the projection makes sense because the lines get even closer.
Currently, this trading range is about 94 points, but in the not-so-distant future—as soon as October of this year—the indicators could get even closer, to only about 63 points apart.
What does that mean?
It means that the price of orange juice futures will have much less difficulty getting above the blue support/resistance line.
If it does get above the blue support/resistance line, it would imply a new bull market for frozen concentrated orange juice.
I don't trade it, but some people do.
This is simply an example of how I use my indicators to analyze securities. I've never traded this particular market in my life, but this is what can be done to analyze securities, and the approach applies broadly. My indicators work on essentially all securities.
At this point, we're going to call it a day for this analysis for Saturday, August 29.
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That's it for this week's recap. Again, please don't forget to hit the like button, sign up, share this video, and make a comment. Even put a thumbs-up or a happy face in the comments—or an unhappy face if you really hated this analysis. But if you did, make a comment explaining why you hated it.
Other than that, thank you for watching, and have another great trading week!
This week’s market recap highlights rising pressure from interest rates after Kevin Warsh’s hawkish inflation comments, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching 17-year highs and bonds remaining under pressure. The S&P 500 is showing signs of a near-term pullback toward support but remains in a broader bullish trend, while utilities continue to flash caution and are leading recent selling—though the setup looks different from the 2021–2022 bear market.
The U.S. dollar has generated a new bullish signal, creating headwinds for gold and silver, while Bitcoin is consolidating after a roughly 30% rally and remains about 6% below a potential new bull-market breakout near $83,000. Cocoa futures have broken out amid concerns about weather-related supply disruptions, while orange juice futures remain bearish but are showing a narrowing trading range that could eventually set up a breakout.
The new MasterChartsTrading 8.0 Price Action Indicators are also now available, replacing earlier 2.0 and 6.0 versions with improved signals, including customizable buy arrows.
FULL TRANSCRIPT
MasterChartsTrading.com Market Recap
Saturday, August 29, 2026
First announcement: we have the 8.0 indicators available now. If you're interested, I will show you how to apply them to your chart. The 8.0 MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators are available, and if you have my 2.0 or 6.0 versions, this supersedes them. It's a huge improvement, so stay until the end to find out how to get them.
Kevin Warsh sent shockwaves throughout the market world, and the 10-year Treasury yield is now near 17-year highs. The 30-year yield is already at 19-year highs that were hit recently.
Utilities are continuing to flash warning signs, and we will also compare the current state of the stock market versus 2021. A commenter left a note for me to take a look at that, so I'll take a look.
The dollar is surging on a hawkish inflation stance, and precious metals could already be rolling over. Bitcoin could be stalling after this massive 30% rally. Another viewer requested an analysis of cocoa and orange juice futures. Stay tuned for that as well.
All this and more in today's edition of the MasterChartsTrading.com market recap for Saturday, August 29, 2026.
As always, please hit the like button, share this video, and make a comment—even put a thumbs-up in the comments section. That's what keeps this channel going and makes the video available to a wider audience.
If you're a subscriber, stay tuned. We'll be covering a separate video on market breadth, various ETFs, some of the large-cap stocks, and some speculative securities. For example, this week we'll be looking at new stock additions to this universe: Pullman X Corp, Beam Therapeutics, and others.
The 8.0 indicators are now available. They look slightly different. You can see that we now have actual arrows where the buy signals would occur. You can also customize them. If you're interested, sign up at MasterChartsTrading.com. The link is in the description.
Let's get started.
Another thing I'm doing right now is recording this video through ChatGPT, so you'll have a clean transcript. If you don't have time to watch the video, you can scan through the transcript, and there will also be a summary on my website, MasterChartsTrading.com, in the blog section. Stay tuned for that when the video is released.
Let's get started.
First, let's look at interest rates. Kevin Warsh recently spoke. Notice again on this chart that we now have the up arrows, and you can control them by turning them on and off. I'll turn them off for now just to make the chart clear.
The 10-year Treasury note yield is approaching 17-year highs. We can look at the 10-year Treasury note yield on the longer-term timeframe. The recent highs were hit in October 2023, and we're very close.
This entire pattern is extremely bullish for this type of security. I'm going to draw it out again. You can think about it as a cup and handle or something of this nature. If we break above the lip of the cup and above the 2023 highs, then most likely we could duplicate the depth of this entire pattern, which is about 1.2 percentage points for the 10-year Treasury note yield.
That move could potentially be duplicated on the upside, so the 10-year yield could get as far as 6% or so. Obviously, there is no guarantee of that.
The way the stock market is interpreting Kevin Warsh's comments is that the Federal Reserve is more concerned about inflation than anything else. The Treasury Department is looking at it from the point of view of whether we can finance our deficit spending.
There are two very conflicting goals here, with Treasury wanting to buy Treasury bonds while the Federal Reserve is trying to keep inflation lower. If Treasury is buying bonds, they're basically pumping money into the economy, and this usually leads to inflation.
These are contradictory goals. Right now, the market seems to trust the Federal Reserve more, and it seems like interest rates are still going higher despite efforts by the Treasury Department to lower them.
Although the longer-dated 30-year yield did not move as much, it seems that potentially there might be some sort of equilibrium reached in this almost war between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. We'll see where it gets us.
Treasury bonds are obviously under pressure. You can see that Treasury bonds are currently below the red support/resistance line and approaching the yellow support/resistance line.
This is IEF, so we're looking at seven- to 10-year Treasury bonds. If they drop below this level, that would imply a bear market for Treasury bonds.
TLT, the longer-dated Treasury bonds, already did so back in July of this year, so we are definitely not trading them on the upside. Right now we're watching the seven- to 10-year Treasury notes, and they seem to be going in the same direction as the 20-year and 30-year bonds as well.
It's an uncomfortable situation for government spending. At the same time, we have the Federal Reserve worried about inflation, so these are contradictory goals.
The S&P 500 itself hasn't really reacted that dramatically yet. Kevin Warsh spoke on Friday, and it does look like a shooting-star candlestick. There was a run-up and then the bears came in and sold, but overall it's not a very convincing reversal to the downside yet.
If we look at the four-hour charts, we can look at the futures for the S&P 500. I showed this to my subscribers, and I think I showed it here as well.
You can see there is a small gap here from July 26 to July 28, and that gap could get filled. I think that's what we're about to experience.
Again, there's a shooting-star candlestick on the four-hour chart as well, so a pullback is quite likely to continue. We might continue even lower toward 7,500 or so.
If we look at the same levels for the S&P 500 on the daily chart, the 7,500 level is around here. Basically, it's a reasonable pullback. We could see a pullback toward the green support/resistance line.
In the past, that area has provided decent support—in June, again later in June, and yet again in July. We also bounced off the green line in March. We pierced through it somewhat, but overall this is clearly still a very bullish chart.
So we're still looking at this chart from the point of view that pullbacks should be bought at this point.
Some issues do appear, and currently we're looking at utilities.
Utilities are considered by some traders to be almost like a bellwether of the stock market. In this case, the price action is actually very telling.
Notice there was a breakdown below the blue support/resistance line around the end of July, followed by a pretty strong collapse almost toward the caution area, or the red line. Then we had a rally and another touch of the blue support/resistance line from below.
It seems like the resistance there was reaffirmed. We really collapsed afterward.
I believe last week I mentioned this same chart. Last Friday, we closed below the red support/resistance line. These are utilities. We had a small bounce and then again closed low yesterday, on Friday.
Right now, we have a definitely reaffirmed entry into a caution phase for utilities.
How severe and how scary is this?
Looking at the longer-term charts, we can see that it's not yet a terrible situation. This is a weekly chart, so each candlestick represents a week's worth of activity. If you're using my indicators, you need to change the lookback period to 52 on the weekly charts.
The broader market is at or near records. Utilities actually made records a while back, in April of this year, and have not made a new record since. So this is a pretty clear bearish divergence.
A viewer said that we should look at the 2021–2022 period for parallels.
Let's look at utilities first for the 2021–2022 period. You can see that utilities were doing quite well. These upward-facing arrows show buying marks. There was a significant selloff in September 2022 going into October 2022.
Was there the same thing for the S&P 500 around the same time period? Not really.
The top for the S&P 500 actually came in December 2021 or early January 2022. Then we unraveled, retested the blue line from below, made a lower low, then a higher low, and then another lower low.
Notice that this is October 2022, and utilities also did the same thing, so they bottomed out in 2022.
Currently, the picture is different. Utilities are leading the selling, whereas in 2021–2022 this was not the case. The S&P 500 was leading the selling.
Is this applicable to today's analysis? Not necessarily. I don't see a strong parallel. Back then we had a different situation with rates as well. Rates were extremely low, so the situation was different.
I'm not yet convinced that we're seeing a similar picture to what we saw in 2022. It was a relatively short-lived bear market, basically from April 2022 until we broke out back into a bull market in April 2023. We spent about a year in bearish territory.
Right now, I think the picture is different. We're seeing higher highs for the S&P 500, while what utilities are doing possibly represents more of a reaction to the bond selling than anything else.
We'll see.
If you have an opinion, definitely comment below and make yourself heard. I'd like to hear it as well. To me, this looks different.
Other sectors are also doing okay. Even XLC, the most troublesome sector that I was highlighting before, with Meta Platforms leading to the downside, is now very close to a fresh breakout into a new bull market.
Perhaps we're just seeing an isolated episode because of the way bonds are acting. Again, we'll see where this goes.
The bigger story, of course, is the reaction of the dollar.
This is the U.S. dollar on the daily timeframe. The dollar had a big fall when the Treasury intervened in the Japanese yen market in late July of this year. The dollar fell toward the blue support/resistance line, with several potential bounces, and then fell through it on Wednesday the 19th.
But right now we're back above it. We literally have a signal to buy the dollar today.
If you're trading the euro versus the U.S. dollar, I would be selling this right now. For example, if you have a Forex account, I would consider selling this security short because it's the opposite of what we're seeing for the dollar.
A rallying dollar implies that other assets, such as precious metals, are feeling the pressure—and indeed they are.
Looking at XAU/USD, with the U.S. dollar on the bottom, the dollar is getting stronger and pulling this currency pair lower. We're seeing pretty significant selling in gold over the last few days.
Gold, technically speaking, is in a bear market again because we closed below the red support/resistance line.
Will it continue down? Very difficult to tell.
Gold miners are actually, technically speaking, in an uptrend. So that's a contradiction. Right now we have gold miners in an uptrend while gold itself is still in a downtrend.
Silver just gave us another sell signal. We had a high above the red line and a close below the red line. That's our signal to sell silver.
If you're interested in trading it, silver would potentially be one of those securities to think about selling. Will it actually hold? That's a different story.
The dollar seems to want to go higher at this point, so right now I will trust the dollar more than anything else.
But some people say, "In gold we trust." Do you trust gold or do you trust the dollar more? Make a comment about that.
Bitcoin also made a very strong move. Bitcoin moved about 30% from the lows that were set here in August and just skyrocketed.
Lately, over the past couple of weeks, it has been trading more or less sideways. On Friday, when Kevin Warsh spoke, Bitcoin reacted negatively.
But Bitcoin trades 24/7, and currently it's Saturday, so we're seeing a potential bounce. We can look at the four-hour chart. The four-hour chart of Bitcoin also shows a very nice move higher.
You can use my indicators on pretty much any chart. Those are the buy alerts and buy signals.
Where does that leave Bitcoin? I would say not there yet.
I think Bitcoin is going to react negatively to Kevin Warsh in general, but notice that the bull market for Bitcoin is extremely close. It's right there.
We're currently about 6% away from a new bull market for Bitcoin. The new bull-market level is around the blue support/resistance line, which is approximately $83,000.
If Bitcoin breaks out above $83,000, then other algorithms will see this, and I think there will be more buying at that point.
I'm moderately optimistic about Bitcoin. I'm much less optimistic about gold-related assets—gold miners, silver, and gold—because of the way they're acting and because of the way the dollar is behaving.
Another viewer asked me to analyze cocoa and orange juice futures.
I don't know who trades orange juice, but apparently people do.
Here are the cocoa futures. Cocoa futures just broke out. Yes, you can use my indicators here as well. We now have this bullish arrow, and there it is. You can see the actual breakout.
The breakout occurred on Thursday, August 27. So yes, cocoa futures seem to be breaking out.
Why is it happening?
I just read an article in The Wall Street Journal that apparently El Niño is coming and could disrupt conditions around the world this coming year. One of the things that could be disrupted is cocoa because a lot of it is produced in places like Ghana and West Africa.
I'm not a meteorologist, and I don't know much about how cocoa grows, but I'm telling you what I'm reading. People are already concerned, and there is some evidence that this could disrupt food supplies throughout the world.
On top of the war in Ukraine, which has affected exports through the Black Sea and the straits, including grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, there could be a stronger possibility of food shortages in places like Africa. Africa has a very large population, yet many countries depend on places like Russia and Ukraine for grain imports.
It's a dangerous situation.
Right now we're still dealing with this cocoa issue, so I don't know how important it ultimately is, but the article mentions companies like Hershey, and Hershey makes chocolate. Maybe we should stock up on some Hershey bars—although I don't eat sugar, so I don't know where that leaves me.
Now let's look at frozen concentrated orange juice futures.
I've never seen this symbol in my life, so I just looked at it.
The only thing I can say about this chart is that it's not bullish. The previous bullish alert would have been in January 2025, and that would have been a failure.
But if you really wanted to trade these futures, you could have potentially sold them back in July 2025 for a nice profit.
Other than that, right now the only positive thing I can say about this chart is that no new lows have been made.
Additionally, what I see here is a narrowing of the trading range.
Notice how wide apart the indicator lines were. From yellow to green they were about 130 points apart. Right now that range is much narrower. It's only about 93 points.
We can also project my indicators into the future. You can see that the projection makes sense because the lines get even closer.
Currently, this trading range is about 94 points, but in the not-so-distant future—as soon as October of this year—the indicators could get even closer, to only about 63 points apart.
What does that mean?
It means that the price of orange juice futures will have much less difficulty getting above the blue support/resistance line.
If it does get above the blue support/resistance line, it would imply a new bull market for frozen concentrated orange juice.
I don't trade it, but some people do.
This is simply an example of how I use my indicators to analyze securities. I've never traded this particular market in my life, but this is what can be done to analyze securities, and the approach applies broadly. My indicators work on essentially all securities.
At this point, we're going to call it a day for this analysis for Saturday, August 29.
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That's it for this week's recap. Again, please don't forget to hit the like button, sign up, share this video, and make a comment. Even put a thumbs-up or a happy face in the comments—or an unhappy face if you really hated this analysis. But if you did, make a comment explaining why you hated it.
Other than that, thank you for watching, and have another great trading week!
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