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Slight Increase in Risk Appetite

3/18/2014

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Monday, March 17, 2014

 

Slight Increase in Risk Appetite

 

  Stocks stopped their fall that started March 10 with a strong rebound today. Emerging markets and large caps lead the rebound. Europe also rebounded rather strongly. We issued a Bear Alert on last Thursday based on the Market Breadth Index ($VMBI) deterioration. Should we get a correction, it will likely be a correction in the context of a bull market, in other words a buying opportunity. Nevertheless, we did open a very small short position in SDOW and TZA on Friday.

 

  TLT lost ¾ of a percent. The momentum and volume patterns in treasuries still indicate higher prices ahead

 

  Gold was the clear looser - down more then 1%. It also printed a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. Short-term momentum has shifted down. First support is around $1345.

 

  GDX lost 3.35% - not unusual for this volatile ETF. First support is around $25.86

 

  Real Estate traded flat. It has been range-bound for the past 5 trading sessions. A close above $69.33 would be bullish, while a close below $67.49 would be bearish and we may see prices around $66.

 

  EEM has been trading in a range since THE beginning of February. A decisive close below $37.05 or above $40.22 would finally clarify the direction in emerging markets.

 

  Natural Gas rebounded somewhat. We still think that the bigger trend is down. A close below $4.341 would continue this decline to at least the $4 area.

 

  Oil is also likely going to see lower prices ahead. Next support is in the $96 area.

 

Open positions: GDX, IYR, TLT, DVY, ETV

Hedging positions: TZA, SDOW, DGAZ

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