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Friday, November 21, 2014. Weekly Market Recap.

11/23/2014

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Video link for this presentation
The S&P 500 and other large cap indices continued to make new all-time highs and surprise many analysts (including myself).

         In my view Friday’s action could look like an exhaustion gap. The S&P 500 gapped up at the open and then continued down all day to close near the day’s lows, all this on above average volume. Could it be the beginning of a long-awaited pull back? Only time will tell.

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Market breadth for the S&P 500 is still bullish, but as I mentioned before very overbought. The overbought condition can persist for an extended period of time, so I am keeping my SPY position open after taking more profits recently.  The Russell 2000 feels different then the large caps. Our system generated a short signal on November 19 and I opened a very small position in TZA. 
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Bonds got a boost on Friday in the face of a surge in stocks. Why would investors be seeking safety of bonds when stocks are making all-time highs? I already have small positions open in AGG and TLT since November 7, but will add to them shortly should the conditions for addition to the position be met.
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Gold and gold equities continued their bounce from our entry on November 14. We are up about 6% from the entry into this counter-trend bounce. 
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Oil got a little bit of a boost, or at least it may have stopped falling. USO is still in a downtrend and our system did not yet generate a counter-trend bounce signal.

         Oil related equities are holding up OK and continuing up. Should USO flip into buy signal, XLE is likely to benefit.

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Best Regards and have another great trading week!
Alexander Berger (www.MasterChartsTrading.com)
Disclaimer: we have open positions in SPY (took profits), TZA, AGG, TLT, GDX, and XLE (took profits)

 

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