October 10 (weekly comments).
My current allocation is 50% bonds and 50% stocks.
Russell 2000 broke down and is now in a bear market. It however represents only about 8% of the total stock market, so I won’t read too much into it.
$SPX is still bullish until proven otherwise and is now oversold both on the regular indicators and on the market breadth indicators.
When will the rebound come? No one knows for sure. I am monitoring such parameters as MACD, Bullish percent index, Mcclellan oscillator, Advance-Decline line, … etc.
All $SPX indicators right now are negative. The only positive thing I can say is that they are all oversold, but they can always get even more oversold. So we must wait for the buying pressure to become higher then the selling pressure before buying into this market.
Bonds have hit all time high last week. Needless to say bonds are bullish. Lots of scared money is rotating into bonds and other defensive sectors such as Utilities and Consumer Staples.
Gold had a pretty good week - GDX actually gained a fraction of a percent. No buy signal was generated however.
Commodities as measure by the $CRB are still in a bear market.