Master Charts Trading - Stock Market Indicators & Trade Alerts
Connect To Us!
  • MasterChartsTrading
  • Blog
  • Sign-Up
  • Members
    • Elite Trading Blog
    • Stock Speculator Blog
    • Training Library >
      • Basics of Trading
      • Risk & Trading Psych
      • Trend Identification
  • Help
    • Hall of Fame
    • Social
    • About Us
    • Contact
    • FAQs
    • Disclaimer
    • Refund Policy
    • Privacy Policy
    • What We Trade
    • Newsletter samples

Market Recap For The Week Ending Friday May 1st, 2015 - SPY IWM TLT GLD GDX NEM UUP USO UNG

5/1/2015

0 Comments

 
Friday, May 1st, 2015 Weekly Market Recap.     

       S&P 500 retested support in the 2070 area and held it for now. The buyers stepped in on Friday and pushed $SPX right back above the 50-day and the 10-day moving averages. So far no sell signal generated on the $SPX per our trading system.  Charts for SPX and IWM here.

watch this video on youtube
Small caps came under selling pressure and on Friday IWM closed below the 50-day moving average. IWM is currently the weakest of the big 3 averages (SPX, QQQ and IWM). How long this weakness will continue is anybody’s guess. For now our trading system generated a sell signal on April 29th. Better be on the outside looking in, than on the inside wishing you were out.

         Market breadth has deteriorated somewhat especially in the small cap universe. Breadth Momentum Oscillators has rolled over below their 10-day exponential moving averages. In the past it meant less upside potential and maybe even more downside potential. Market breadth is kind of like a wind when sailing – it’s always better to have it at your back.
Bonds sold off worldwide. Just on April 20th, the 10-year German Treasury yield was basically at zero (0.08%). Here we are just 9 days later and same yield is now at 0.37% - a 366% move! For comparison purposes US Treasury 10-year yield is currently over 2%.

      Treasury bonds (TLT) were off another 3.73% this week. On Thursday it looked like bond bulls were going to make a stand and TLT was going rally. Yet Friday TLT closed below the support level from February. Unless it rallies from here, the next stop for TLT might be the 200-day moving average, currently around 122.

Gold turned very volatile as it first retested resistance at $1224 and later same week retested the support at $1174. I was short gold via JDST going into this week, but was forced to cover on Monday. Gold and gold miners are still bearish long-term, so I would be looking to reenter on the short side again.

       GDX may be drawing out what appears to be a rising wedge formation. A break below the lower line of the wedge may call for a retest of December lows. For now GDX is rapidly coming up on a major resistance zone defined by the 200-day moving average and the peak from February - around $21.50.

         It’s always a good idea to be cognizant of the opposing view. To that degree I question myself to see if my assumption about a stock is correct. In other words - what if I am wrong? One of the stronger stocks in the gold mining complex Newmont Mining (NEM) became an outright market leader this week. Its SCTR (Stockcharts technical rank) is now above 90, which means it’s in the top 10 percent of all large cap stocks. This shows that money may be rotating into the gold and the natural resources sectors again.
Gold and gold miners charts are located here
Undoubtedly one of the reasons why natural resources are gaining (or at least no longer falling) is the sell-off in the dollar. UUP is off over 6% from its March peak. UUP may already be making a stand. It is short-term oversold and short-term traders might be stepping in for a rebound play. No buy signal on UUP yet per our trading system. 
During the same time period that UUP was down a little over 6%, West Texas Intermediate Oil ($WTIC) is up over 40%. Again, I am bearish on $WTIC in the long-term and will look for shorting opportunities, but there is no denying that there are now decent support levels for oil in the $54 and $51 areas. Still, should the dollar rally it would pressure all commodities.

       Natural gas ($NATGAS) may have put in a double bottom. It rebounded from the low of $2.48 on Monday and closed above the 50-day moving average for the second day in a row on Friday. A quick move below the 50-day moving average next week would reaffirm the longer-term downtrend in gas. Again, I would be looking for shorting opportunities until proven otherwise especially should the dollar rally.
Commodities charts located here

That’s it for this week’s market recap,

Best Regards and have another great trading week!

 ** Special Announcement**

We are weeks away from launching a stocks alert service. Please sign-up for our mailing list to be the first to take advantage of the discounted membership!

 

Alexander Berger (www.MasterChartsTrading.com)

Disclaimer, we have:

Open positions: SPY, LULU, EA (took profits)

New position:

Closed position: JDST

Ready to trade? Sign-up Today
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Picture
    Picture
    Subscribe to our mailing list!
    Picture
    Picture

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014

    RSS Feed

  All information on MasterChartsTrading.com is for educational and entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities. Read full disclaimer.