Video market recap February 13, 2015 - $SPY $QQQ $NYA $TLT $GLD $GDX $UNG

www.MasterChartsTrading.com Friday, February 13, 2015 Weekly Market Recap.

         Watch this week's video here
Last week I mentioned that we were more likely to get a bullish resolution rather then a bearish one from the trading range that the S&P 500 has been stuck in for the past few months. We indeed got our bullish resolution on February 10 with a close above 2065. Since then, most major indices hit new all-time highs. The indices are not yet overbought and new highs are likely to continue. Charts here and here for $SPX

       The same goes for themarket breadth – its bullish and not “overbought”. There is an ever so small bearish divergence between $SPX and its AD Line – only a few points. I am not sure it’s even worth mentioning. 

The NASDAQ, after dragging its feet, suddenly surged and became a market leader. QQQ hit a new high yesterday, while $SPX and the Russell 2000 small cap index did the same today.

Selling in bonds extended as TLT lost almost 3% this week. TLT is down over 7% from its all-time high on January 30th. Today TLT closed below its 50 day moving average – an ominous sign of more selling to come, especially if Tuesday it closes below the 50 DMA again. I still consider this pullback in bonds a normal correction within a bigger uptrend. 

Gold reached a 50% Fibonacci retracement on February 11, but remains below both the 200 and the 50 day moving averages. In fact it closed below the 50 DMA for 3 day in a row now. There is clear resistance for gold in the $1238 area. 

       GLD went on our short signal on February 6th.

Gold miners, unsurprisingly, came under selling pressure as well. We were able to open a short position on February 6th as well. Since then, GDX broke an important support by closing below $21. I am targeting a correction to the $19.75-20.25 area (at least). 

Finally, let us revisit natural gas – an oversold commodity. I highlighted$NATGAS a few weeks ago and wanted to reiterate that this is an extremely volatile security, so trading it carries an increased risk. Having said that, I think we may see at least a significant oversold bounce, or possibly a sustained rebound. Look on this chart for a buy signal. 

That’s it for this week’s recap,

 

Best Regards and have another great trading week!

 

Alexander Berger (www.MasterChartsTrading.com)

Disclaimer, we have:

Open positions: SPY, DUST

New position:

Closed position: