Master Charts Trading - Stock Market Indicators & Trade Alerts
Connect To Us!
  • MasterChartsTrading
  • Blog
  • Sign-Up
  • Members
    • Elite Trading Blog
    • Stock Speculator Blog
    • Training Library >
      • Basics of Trading
      • Risk & Trading Psych
      • Trend Identification
  • Help
    • Hall of Fame
    • Social
    • About Us
    • Contact
    • FAQs
    • Disclaimer
    • Refund Policy
    • Privacy Policy
    • What We Trade
    • Newsletter samples

Video Weekly Market recap, January 2, 2015 $SPY $GDX $USO $TLT $AGG

1/4/2015

0 Comments

 
Friday, January 2, 2015 Weekly Market Recap. Watch video here.

        After hitting a new all-time high on December 29, markets sold-off rather sharply. This is a normal market behavior. Per our trading system, so far we are keeping our positions in stocks open and letting them breathe a bit. No sell signal in stocks on this upswing yet.

Picture
I highlighted a bullish divergence between the $NYSE Composite average and its Advance-Decline line last week. Again this divergence continues as NYSE makes lower high, yet the Advance-Decline and the Advance-Decline volume lines make higher highs. This is telling me that there is an underlying strength in the general stock market and higher prices in the $NYSE are likely to follow.
Picture
         Bonds rebounded again and we re-opened a swing position in AGG and TLT. Looks like bonds are signaling a risk-off period in the stock market. Both stocks and bonds are hitting new all-time highs. Of course bonds remain vulnerable to the whims of the Federal Reserve interest rate policies. Should the Fed raise interest rates in 2015, bond prices will likely come under pressure.

Picture
         I have been bearish on gold and gold miners for a long time, but in this newsletter, I will attempt to see if there is now sufficient evidence to turn (at least temporarily) bullish on gold and gold miners.

         Gold and gold miners may be showing signs of either a failure of the latest downswing, or a possible long-term bottom in prices. If we look at the long-term picture on weekly charts, so far no major changes are visible. Gold miners have been in a downtrend since the end of 2011. 
Picture
Along the way from 2011 there were several excellent selling (shorting) opportunities. Latest one of which happened around November 28 of 2014. However, this latest shorting iteration of GDX, so far has not been profitable, as the low in GDX from November 5, 2014 was not yet breached. 
Picture
In fact GDX made a higher low on December 16, rallied into Friday, January 2nd and closed above the 50 day moving average with a bullish candlestick.

        GDX market breadth also improved somewhat. As you can see from the chart below, there are several positive developments:

a.    Bullish percent index for GDX is now at 6.67% and rising. This is hardly a bullish reading, but nevertheless an improvement from zero.

b.    The Advance-Decline Percent Volume line (AD- Percent Volume line) made a higher low on December 23rd and is now also rising. This is telling me that the larger capitalization gold miners within GDX index are leading the index higher.

         The rest of the gold miner’s market breadth indicators remain neutral or negative. In fact the AD-Percent line made a lower low on December 16th, while GDX itself made a higher low. This is called a bearish divergence – not a good sign.

         Should GDX rally in the next few weeks and close above at least the bearish triangle trend line I drew, or better yet $20.26 (high from November 24th), I will call this latest downswing a failure. On the contrary, should GDX break the lower trend line of the triangle pattern, new lows will likely follow.

         
Picture
         Finally, I still see no bottom in oil prices yet. On Friday, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil ($WTIC) closed below the recent low of $53.60. It also broke the lower trend line from, what appears to be a bear flag I highlighted in my previous newsletter. Unless oil rallies from here, we can easily see prices in the lower $40s for oil soon. 

Picture
Picture
Ready to trade? Sign-up Today
0 Comments



Leave a Reply.

    Picture
    Picture
    Subscribe to our mailing list!
    Picture
    Picture

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014

    RSS Feed

  All information on MasterChartsTrading.com is for educational and entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell or sell-short said securities. Read full disclaimer.